Here's the state of play in the 13 states likeliest to be presidential battlegrounds. However, some other key states haven’t seen much movement despite new polling. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Swing state … Like Pennsylvania, North Carolina is another state where the forecast has hardly budged in the past few days. The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls And states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which have largely remained the same. Both candidates are focusing their campaigns on the battleground states. Battleground States Biden retains his lead in most of the “Top Battleground” states that RCP tracks : Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona, and has retaken a … On the one hand, that’s good news for Biden as he remains a favorite to win the presidency. The map and chart below highlight the states with battleground elections in 2018 and whether the seat changed party hands. But the polls also got the battleground states wrong, hilariously so. it is less prone to hedging its bets in cases where one side is clearly favored to win than the 538 model). The reality is once Trump outperformed a single underdog state the odds of him doing well in other states rose dramatically and those sites (not 538) didn't take that into account. Let's take a look at these battleground states and their election results. Washington, D.C., has three electors, for a national total of 538. Here's Why. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver explains how to interpret polling “Here's your reality check,” said the site's editor in chief. Election Update (223) Biden now has a 57 in 100 chance of winning Georgia, up from 46 in 100 on Monday. And yesterday, Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden’s numbers, as their poll found him up by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places. There are 18 other states where we have one or two polls, including surveys in potential battleground states that also suggest that Biden has an overall edge. We’ve become a flyover state and while you may … Sign and send the petition to your U.S. senators: Focus on COVID-19 relief immediately, not Trump’s judicial nominations. Arizona. Iowa. How the White House will be won: The 8 states that will decide the election. We know the winner will be a Republican, Saturday's top-two runoff will determine who will replace the retiring Rep. Ralph Abraham. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. CNN Poll of Polls averages across 10 key battleground states suggest tight races heading into the final two weeks of the campaign in seven states and former Vice President Joe Biden ahead in … FiveThirtyEight’s forecast anticipates that some of these states, like New Hampshire and Wisconsin, might bounce back slightly to the left in 2020, but also that others, like Minnesota, may continue to shift to the right. How the Electoral College works – and how it affected battleground states in 2020 Critics say the Electoral College process puts too much emphasis on swing states and negates the popular vote. Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. GA 100 % in. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a big game about an expanded electoral map with … All of those states went to Trump in 2016, but there are some indications from early polling that at least some might be among the battleground states in play in 2020. For this version of Battleground States forecasts, I thought I would contrast the 538 model with that of the Economist over the past couple of weeks. Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.) Some of the states are considered safe for one candidate or the other, but the battleground states have a large number of electoral votes. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. However, Biden’s advantage would be more concrete were his position in Pennsylvania to improve in the closing days of the campaign. Notably, winning the US election rests on key battleground states or "swing states" where the number of electoral college votes is high. For instance, NBC News/Marist College gave Biden a 4-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent, which was a narrow improvement for Biden from the tied race Marist found in early September. Colorado is not one of them. In recent modern elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. Of all the most crucial battleground states (PA, FL, AZ, NC, IA, GA, OH, TX), all are rated more favorably now for the Democrats under the Economist model compared to 538’s model — … Ahead of the 2020 election, eyes are on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and North Carolina as the key battleground states. Of all the most crucial battleground states (PA, FL, AZ, NC, IA, GA, OH, TX), all are rated more favorably now for the Democrats under the Economist model compared to 538’s model — … Battleground states. All posts tagged “Swing States” Nov. 18, 2020. Because not all of the news was good for Biden in Ohio. With 11 months to go, The Fulcrum reviewed information from state elections officials, the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Election Assistance Commission and news reports to get a sense of the election security landscape. The Economist model continues to favor Biden’s prospects in PA, AZ, FL, and NC a bit more than the 538 model, while the opposite is true for OH … For instance, we’ve gotten three new high-quality polls today from Florida that were in the field through at least Tuesday, and although these polls have helped Biden a tad, they actually tell a pretty mixed tale compared to each pollster’s last look at the Florida situation. Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.) The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. That is, if the polls mostly hold where they are, it will take a sizable polling error for Trump to win. FLORIDA (29 electoral votes) Trump 49%, Clinton 47.8%. Gravis Marketing found Trump ahead in their latest poll, 49 percent to 47 percent. How Republicans Stole a Florida State Senate Seat December 3, 2020 at 4:40 pm EST December 3, 2020 at 4:49 pm EST The Miami Herald looks at the origins of a phantom candidate who was put on the ballot to steal votes from the Democrats in a tight Florida state senate race…. UPDATED Nov. 3, 2020, at 12:15 AM. The Battleground States That Will Likely Decide the Election The decisive tallies for Trump and Biden are expected to come from among just 11 states Biden’s odds improved in most battleground states. From Florida, we can slide our gaze north of the St. Mary’s River to look at Georgia, where we’ve actually seen a more sizable shift in Biden’s direction over the past few days. By Tim Lawlis October 16, 2020 at 11:47 am. 2020 Presidential Election (38) In the US Presidential elections, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes of the 538 that are up for grabs. Ohio is another state where Trump seemed to have a slight edge, but is now more of a toss-up as our forecast has swung toward Biden and gives both candidates a 1 in 2 shot of winning it. Early results for the United States Presidential elections show a close race between Republican President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in key battleground states. A Changing Electoral Map In recent modern elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. The president is running out of time to change his fate in these key 2020 battlegrounds. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. IA 98 % in. Frequent use of battleground state in national elections makes it seem like a deeply ingrained part of our political language. Minnesota. Irontortoise. Florida (175) States of the Race. 538 Battleground State Forecasts Update -- October 12. Biden close to win as his lead grows in battleground states. The aforementioned live-caller survey from Quinnipiac University that came out today found Biden up 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent, but that was practically identical to what it found in the middle of October. And the margin as it currently stands leaves room for Trump to win on Nov. 3 — or after, as it might take a bit to get the final result there. @geoffreyvs, 2020 Election (1149 posts) The Senate Picture Florida. Geoffrey Skelley is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast 538 "The Battleground States Where We've Seen Some Movement In The Polls" (Original post) NRaleighLiberal: Oct 29: OP: That's good news to go to sleep on. Addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, economic well-being, and health care were top priorities during the November election.... Sign the petition: TRUMP MUST IMMEDIATELY CONCEDE and Congress must ensure he steps down. Meanwhile, UMass Lowell found the two candidates knotted at 48 percent apiece, which was pretty much the same as a late September poll that found them tied at 47 percent. How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map. That poll was the main driver of the shift today in Ohio. States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. This is important because Georgia is a state that Trump absolutely must win to have any chance of victory — in fact, he wins in less than 1 percent of the scenarios in which Biden carries it. October 5, 2020 at 7:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment. There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs in a presidential election, and a candidate must clear 270 votes to win. Each US state gets a certain number of votes partly based on its population and there are a total of 538 up for grabs. The most significant differences at the individual state level appear to be: FL — Where the Economist consistently thinks Biden is doing better than the 538 model; OH — Where the Economist consistently thinks Biden is doing worse than the 538 model; and. A win for President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden requires securing 270 of the 538 electoral votes at stake Tuesday, but the decisive votes will … The media is full of maps of the electoral landscape. Nt. Assassination in Iran could limit Biden’s options. For example, we’ve seen a couple of new polls in Pennsylvania since late yesterday that both give Biden a lead in the mid-to-high single digits, and one was even a high-quality live-caller poll, which we’ve lacked here to some extent. Let's investigate. On Election Day, Nate Silver -- who got every state right in 2012 and 49 right in 2008 -- gave his state-by-state forecasts. State Prev ious Status New Status RCP Electoral Count RCP National Avg. New Poll of 2,289 Voters In 4 Battleground States: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, And Wisconsin. At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. The path to the presidency runs through a dozen battleground states. They were not weighted. However, Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point edge it gave Biden in early October. But they didn’t change the forecast’s outlook: Biden still has a 86 in 100 chance of winning there. (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.). Battleground states. Despite a decisive demand for change, Trump... Sign the petition: Amy Coney Barrett must recuse herself from any 2020 election cases. Compiled together, the 8 battleground states amount to only 119 electoral votes of the 538 assigned to the 50 states and District of Columbia. Was that the goal? Most importantly, Quinnipiac University found Biden up by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, which was a fairly substantial improvement for Biden from Quinnipiac’s last survey in early October that had him up by just 1 point. Bottom line: Florida is close, like it always seems to be. Oct. 29, 2020, Exit Polls Came Up Short This Year. We have one new poll today that largely aligns with recent polling that has boosted Biden’s chances in Georgia. How the White House will be won: The 8 states that will decide the election. Missouri isn’t one By Jesse Newell. There are 18 other states where we have one or two polls, including surveys in potential battleground states that also suggest that Biden has an overall edge. Six states with electoral heft in 2020 Published Sept. 25, 2020 “Battleground” or “swing” states, which can switch back and forth between the two major parties in U.S. presidential votes and are heavily courted by candidates, will be crucial to deciding the winner of this year’s election. 5 days ago. How Georgia Turned Blue By Perry Bacon Jr. Merriam-Webster found an example of the phrase in an 1842 edition of the Centinel of Freedom. Filed Under: … Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.. Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking. Using Google’s Ngram Viewer, we see an uptick in the phrase’s use in 1980 before a significant jump in 2000. No state balances on a knife’s edge like Florida, the most populous and consistently competitive of the nation’s battleground states. By Geoffrey Skelley. National Polls (61) Forecasts. Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College. A Changing Electoral Map. He wrote, "Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state." at Nov. 3, 2020. reported a small downturn in Biden’s numbers, they didn’t change the forecast’s outlook, Quinnipiac University that came out today found, same margin the pollster found in early October, might take a bit to get the final result there, New York Times Upshot/Siena College found, The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, Why The GOP Isn't Able To Win The Popular Vote. Voters decided: Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States! 538 Battleground State Forecasts Update -- October 22: Ways to get involved in the 2020 Election. 7:22 PM. Note that since neither model rates Biden’s prospects in KS or IN (or NE-1) as any better than 5% at this point, I’ve gone ahead and rolled them into the R..Base Electoral Vote total. 538 Battleground State Forecasts Update -- October 15: Irontortoise. Polling averages were checked and updated daily. Similarly, PoliticalIQ/RMG Research’s new survey gave Biden a 6-point advantage, 51 percent to 45 percent, the same margin the pollster found in early October. Winning battleground states can significantly increase the candidate's chance of winning the Presidency. No state balances on a knife’s edge like Florida, the most populous and consistently competitive of the nation’s battleground states. On the whole, the topline numbers in this race haven’t changed much. Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Email. The New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Biden ahead by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, pretty similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent edge they gave him in mid-October, but now with fewer undecided voters. State Prev ious Status New Status RCP Electoral Count RCP National Avg. 99% expected vote in. Hannity reports Joe in Trouble: Trump Beating Biden in 15 Battleground States. Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN. All of those states went to Trump in 2016, but there are some indications from early polling that at least some might be among the battleground states in play in 2020. For this version of Battleground States forecasts, I thought I would contrast the 538 model with that of the Economist over the past couple of weeks. In this case, the phrase was used to describe internal political strife in New Jersey politics. Two new polls out today precipitated this shift toward Biden, moving the state’s polling average from a 2-point Trump lead to a tie. How Joe Biden won the key swing states and secured 2020 election victory Joe Biden has won seven swing states, including Georgia, which has pushed him to win the election with 306 electoral votes With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. Change in Joe Biden’s chances of winning in states where he or Donald Trump has at least a … FL 100 % in. As per the latest projections, Biden has 253 electoral college votes and Trump trails behind with 213. The states certified the projected 306-232 win for president-elect Joe Biden. Georgia (124) Michigan. [Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]. FLORIDA (29 electoral votes) Trump 49%, Clinton 47.8%. Pennsylvania (199) Trump's standing in battleground states may be slipping . In fact, Trump has only led in two Georgia surveys out of the 13 released in the past 10 days. Candidates tend to prioritize battleground states because of the Electoral College. All rights reserved. In fact, two new polls released today showed essentially no movement compared to each of the pollsters’ last surveys in North Carolina. MI 100 % in. Biden now has a 65 in 100 shot of carrying the state, but it’s been around that mark since last weekend. Joe Biden has secured the 270 votes he needed in the 538-vote Electoral College to win the presidency. Daily Kos moves in solidarity with the Black community. In general, they are in close agreement with each other, with the main difference being at the extremes where the Economist model is much more likely to up rate or down the respective chances (i.e. Were 2020 election polls wrong? States. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. The path to the presidency runs through a dozen battleground states. Presidential elections are decided at the margins, meaning how a handful of states shift from one … beachbumbob: Oct 29 #3: Lol, ok! For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. NRaleighLiberal (53,030 posts) 538 "The Battleground States Where We've Seen Some Movement In The Polls" And states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which have largely remained the … (This was Gravis’s first public poll of Ohio.). Biden has improved standing in many battleground states, 538 says. Things look a little better in Biden’s other stretch state, Georgia, where RCP has him up.4 points, and 538 gives him a 1.7-point edge over Trump in the Peach State. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Meanwhile, Monmouth University released a Georgia survey yesterday that gave Biden a 2-point or 4-point lead, depending on projected turnout among likely voters, which marked a swing from the pollster’s mid-September poll that had Trump ahead by 2 or 5 points, again depending on turnout. “Battleground” or “swing” states, which can switch back and forth between the two major parties in U.S. presidential votes and are heavily courted by candidates, will be crucial to deciding the winner of this year’s election. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. Ohio (133) Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling put Biden ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent, essentially the same as what the pollster found in early October. State Polls (13). 2020 General Election Center: Live results of voting today including polls, who's winning election races, state-by-state governor, Senate and congressional races — live updates IA & TX — Where Biden is seeing a more favorable trend under the 538 model. December 5, 2020. From the New York Times/Siena College: ARIZONA: Biden 49%, Trump 41%; From Public Policy Polling: NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 50%, Trump 46%; From Ipsos: PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%; WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 44% ; Save to Favorites. North Carolina (153) Trump was the underdog in a dozen battleground states so the the odds Trump would win six or seven of them were incredibly low or they would be if states were independent coin flips. The president is running out of time to change his fate in these key 2020 battlegrounds. Filed under 2020 Election. The four battleground states fired back, ... Federal law defers to states in choosing the 538 electors, and Congress ultimately counts those votes. NRaleighLiberal: Oct 29 #2: generally a worthless article at best . 2020 Presidential Forecast (27) States of the Race. The 270 needed to clinch is half plus one. underpants: Oct 29 #1: in west part of the state, we got some rain last night - beautiful since 10 AM. So we’ll just have to see if anything shifts in the final days that changes the trajectory of the race. To win the presidency, a candidate must obtain at least 270 of the 538 available electoral votes. Neither new poll showed much of a change from its previous Pennsylvania survey either. Mouse over a state … New Battleground State Polls. But the short of it in Georgia is that results showing Biden slightly ahead or tied with Trump have become more common. Louisiana 5th District Election: Overview and Live Results. A recent poll shows Trump is in the lead in 15 key states. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top. Colorado is not one of them. AZ 100 % in. 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